Picking stocks by the numbers
Most managers pick stocks by the numbers: P/E ratios, earning growth rate, EBITDA to enterprise value, and so on. Hundreds of studies have shown that you cannot outperform the market looking solely at numbers. Insight is required. But insight can cost a manager his job and a $500,000 annual salary. Picking stocks by the numbers as does everyone else, keeps those paychecks rolling in. In interviews and slick marketing brochures, mutual fund managers boast that they have one-on-one contact with company managers. Unfortunately for you, every mutual fund manager talks to the same company managers at your expense. Trips to New York, Boston, Silicon Valley, and Los Angeles are paid for by you. Investment conferences in Las Vegas, Honolulu, and Hong Kong cost you even more money. Because all the fund families talk to all the companies and go to all the conferences, no one gains any insight and all return home to the same numbers.
Fund gathering, job security, and indexing has resulted in most funds, index and non-index, owning the same stocks. Overowned stocks have huge market capitalization. It requires larger and larger purchases of stock to move prices up. In essence, $100 million in new money will increase the value of a $1 billion stock by 10 percent; a $100 billion stock will only increase in value by 0.1 percent.